Premier League best bets: Chelsea vs. West Ham, Crystal Palace vs. Man United and more

Luton Town vs. Everton

Friday, May 3, 3 p.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Sign up with Action's bonus code for bet365 to get $365 in bonus bets for all the upcoming soccer matches!

Cunningham: There is a lot of must win baked into this line with Luton Town needing to win to avoid relegation and Everton already having achieved safety.

These two have met twice this season, once in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. Over those two matches Everton created 3.9 expected goals and scored only twice, while Luton Town created 2.3 expected goals but scored four times.

Luton Town beat Everton in the previous two meetings because they let Everton have the ball, played very passively and then hit them in transition. Given the situation they are in, I am not really sure they are in a position to play that way because they have to go for it. That means Everton can be very comfortable sitting in their mid-block and breaking from there. They also aren’t going to try to build out of the back and allow Luton to press them high.

The Hatters are getting healthier across their back line, but this is the type of matchup that doesn’t really suit them because Everton are a much better version of what Luton Town want to be. Luton are going to have to play aggressive out of possession and win a lot of long balls and duels in the middle of the pitch against a team that is elite at doing both of those things. Luton Town defensively have also been pretty poor at defending in wide areas in terms of allowing crosses into their penalty area (15th in EPL) and defending set pieces (12th in EPL), so this really isn’t a great matchup for them.

There is almost a full goal difference in underlying metrics for the season between these two sides with Luton Town having a -0.94 xGD per 90 minutes and Everton sitting at only -0.04. Even if we go from the beginning of February, Luton Town have the worst xGD in the Premier League at -1.26 per 90 minutes, while Everton are around even.

Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (-102 via bet365)

Man City vs. Wolves

Saturday, May 4, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Manchester City haven't lost a match in any competition since Dec. 6 against Aston Villa, but the cracks have shown up in the defense for good parts of the last month. City are inflated across the board for this match due to the must win tax as they chase a fourth straight Premier League title, and the best way to play against those overvalued prices is via Wolves' team totals.

Wolves have been a pesky underdog all season long in the league. They scored at Arsenal, beat Chelsea and Spurs twice, tied Aston Villa and scored against Liverpool in the opening stages of that match. Gary O’Neil’s side is still without Pedro Neto, but the injury crisis that plagued them for most of March and April is over now that Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha are back amongst the key attackers.

City conceded more than one xG to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi final. They allowed two at Nottingham Forest last weekend and conceded four across two legs to Real Madrid. The pressing numbers are down, they’re allowing more in transition and the defense is legitimately vulnerable right now. City could just squash everyone en route to a league title, but they are much more likely to need to outscore everyone. As a result, I’d bet Wolves to score a goal at anything plus money.

Three weeks ago, Luton Town closed +105 to score. Now, Wolves are +125.

Picks: Wolves Team Total Over 0.5 (+125 via Caesars)

Chelsea vs. West Ham

Sunday, May 5, 9 a.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Sign up with Action's bonus code for bet365 to get $365 in bonus bets for all the upcoming soccer matches!

Cunningham: Chelsea have a clear weakness defensively and that is defending in transition, which is a massive problem here against West Ham given their style of play.

West Ham are a team that will play a low block and then counter from deep. They have the ball carriers like Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen to be able to punish anybody in transition. Since Feb.  26, West Ham have only been held under one expected goal in two Premier League matches and are averaging 1.46 xG per 90 minutes.

The problem for West Ham always has been they are terrible sitting in a low defensive block. The Hammers are allowing the most box entries of anyone in the Premier League, the most progressive passes and dribbles and the second-highest xThreat. They are allowing 2.28 xG per 90 minutes in 2024, which if it wasn’t for Luton Town would be the highest in the Premier League.

Chelsea are dealing with a lot of injuries to their midfield and back line. Enzo Fernandez, Malo Gusto, Thiago Siliva, Ben Chillwell and Levi Colwil are all going to miss this match, which is a big problem when you are trying to defend the attacking talent that West Ham have. To make matters worse, over their last 12 matches, Chelsea are allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes.

I have 3.59 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+108 via BetRivers)

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United

Monday, May 6, 3 p.m. ET, Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: I don’t have the data to back this up, but I’d almost guarantee this is the first time that Crystal Palace have ever been favored against Manchester United. The Red Devils were pegged back against Burnley in a 1-1 draw last weekend and now they’ll hit the road against a rapidly improving Palace side.

Palace have a positive expected goal differential since Oliver Glasner became manager, and that’s while playing a more difficult than average schedule. Manchester United’s defense is a bottom three unit in the Premier League and the trendline continues to get worse. Palace are flying into the finish line in this PL season now that both Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are both fit. Eze didn’t start the last match at Fulham but should be back to threaten this United defense.

United are still dealing with an injury crisis in defense and will likely have to start Casemiro or Jonny Evans at center back again. They’re also likely relying on Christian Eriksen as a holding midfielder. Here are Manchester United’s last six away matches in the Premier League and their corresponding expected goals allowed in each.

2-2 at Bournemouth (1.8 xGA)

3-4 at Chelsea (3.0 xGA)

1-1 at Brentford (3.2 xGA)

1-3 at Manchester City (3.3 xGA)

2-1 at Luton Town (1.8 xGA)

2-1 at Aston Villa (2.4 xGA)

It’s an all-in primetime home spot for Palace and I expect the attack to have no issues consistently creating chances in this match.

Pick: Crystal Palace Team Total Over 1.5 (-120)